What were the preseason Super Bowl odds? The Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens were the two favorites to win Super Bowl 55 before the 2019-20 NFL season began.
- Preseason Odds Table; Tm Super Bowl Odds W/L O-U Record; Arizona Cardinals +30000: 5.0.
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The 2018 NFL season kicks off in two weeks, and for the third consecutive year — and eighth time since 2005 — the New England Patriots are the betting markets’ preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl.Preseason Super Bowl odds are referenced as of July and August, the time frame when historical odds are most consistently available. If you expanded your preseason parameters, you could argue that the Patriots have been the preseason favorite at least three more times since 2005, including 2015 (favorites in March), 2013 (favorites in March, co-favorites with Denver and San Francisco in April) and 2012 (co-favorites with Green Bay in early September).
'>1 The Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers are all currently tied as the next most favored, followed by the Green Bay Packers and the defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles.According to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and as of publication. Odds change over time and vary among sportsbooks.'>2Thanks to a Supreme Court decision in May that struck down a federal law prohibiting sports gambling in most states, topics like Super Bowl odds — and point spreads, money lines, over-unders, prop bets, parlays and teasers — are set to become a bigger part of the mainstream sports experience than ever before. Since the decision, Delaware, Mississippi and New Jersey have joined Nevada in offering full-scale legalized sports betting, with several states poised to follow.
Against this backdrop, and as the start of the NFL season nears, we thought it worthwhile to explore how teams’ preseason odds to win the Super Bowl typically play out over the course of the season. Where on the odds board do Super Bowl winners and losers come from? And how do preseason favorites and almost-favorites usually fare?
Super Bowl Latest Line Vegas
At +600 (6 to 1),In the United States, “odds to win” are typically referenced in money-line (American) or fractional (traditional or British) terms. The Patriots, for example, are currently +600 (money-line odds) or 6/1 (fractional odds) to win Super Bowl LIII according to Westgate — commonly referred to as having “six-to-one” odds. That means that if a bettor wagers $100 on the Patriots to win it all, the bettor would win $600.
'>3 the Patriots have an implied probability of 14.3 percent to win the Super Bowl,Implied probabilities are presented here at face value, without adjusting for the underlying profit made by sportsbooks on the bets. Because of that take, the likelihood of each outcome is slightly overstated, and the sum of the implied probabilities for all teams in a given season is greater than 100 percent.'>4 highest in the NFL. Last year, the Patriots were +250 (2.5 to 1) before the start of the season, which translated to a 28.6 percent chance — they were, in other words, a considerably heavier favorite than they are today.
The 2018 Rams, Vikings and Steelers are all +1000 (10 to 1), which suggests a 9.1 percent probability. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently have this season’s longest odds — 200 to 1, or a 0.5 percent chance at a Super Bowl ring.
In the past 17 NFL seasons, only two preseason favorites have gone on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy — the 2006 Indianapolis Colts (+600) and the 2016 Patriots (+650). But preseason favorites haven’t exactly fallen apart, either. Only four since 2001 have missed the playoffs,The 2002 Rams, 2003 Buccaneers, 2005 Eagles (co-favorites with the Colts and Patriots) and 2008 Patriots. The 2008 Patriots won 11 games but still missed the playoffs.
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5 and in most seasons, the favorite or co-favorite actually made the Super Bowl. They just had a funny habit of losing when they got there.| Preseason Odds to Win Super Bowl | Season Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Preseason Favorite(s) | Money Line | Implied Prob. | Wins | Playoffs |
| 2018 | New England | +600 | 14% | — | — |
| 2017 | New England | +250 | 29 | 13 | Lost SB |
| 2016 | New England | +650 | 13 | 14 | Won SB |
| 2015 | Green Bay | +500 | 17 | 10 | Lost Div |
| Seattle | +500 | 17 | 10 | Lost Div | |
| 2014 | Seattle | +500 | 17 | 12 | Lost SB |
| Denver | +500 | 17 | 12 | Lost Div | |
| 2013 | Denver | +650 | 13 | 13 | Lost SB |
| San Francisco | +650 | 13 | 12 | Lost Conf | |
| 2012 | Green Bay | +600 | 14 | 11 | Lost Div |
| 2011 | New England | +600 | 14 | 13 | Lost SB |
| 2010 | Indianapolis | +800 | 11 | 10 | Lost WC |
| 2009 | New England | +500 | 17 | 10 | Lost WC |
| 2008 | New England | +350 | 22 | 11 | Missed |
| 2007 | New England | +250 | 29 | 16 | Lost SB |
| 2006 | Indianapolis | +600 | 14 | 12 | Won SB |
| 2005 | Indianapolis | +500 | 17 | 14 | Lost Div |
| New England | +500 | 17 | 10 | Lost Div | |
| Philadelphia | +500 | 17 | 6 | Missed | |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | +500 | 17 | 13 | Lost SB |
| 2003 | Tampa Bay | +800 | 11 | 7 | Missed |
| 2002 | St. Louis | +350 | 22 | 7 | Missed |
| 2001 | St. Louis | +400 | 20 | 14 | Lost SB |
Keep this in mind, too: Preseason Super Bowl odds tell us more about the season that just ended than the one that’s about to start.Much like strength-of-schedule rankings.
'>6 There’s a fairly strong negative correlation (-0.75) between teams’ regular-season win totals the previous season and their rankings in the odds before the start of the next season — the more games a team won last year, the lower, or better, their preseason odds rank becomes. And there’s only a modest negative correlation (-0.42) between teams’ preseason odds rankings and their performance in the season that the odds purport to cover. NFL teams generally revert toward the mean, undermining the accuracy of preseason odds that are mostly based on what each team did last season.2020 Nfl Preseason Super Bowl Odds
So have some fun analyzing this year’s preseason Super Bowl odds, agree or disagree, and compare them with FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections in a couple of weeks if you’re curious to see how the betting markets and Elo differ. But above all, take them with a grain of salt — unless a team with the fourth to ninth best odds wins the Super Bowl. If that happens, you heard it here first.
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