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Scheduled release date: 3 June 2020
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The recent information flow for the sub-sets of data that feed into the GDP result suggests the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the real GDP growth in the March quarter is relatively modest, with a range of offsetting factors at play.
In the March quarter, household consumption spending held up with booming spending in supermarket hoarding of toilet paper, pasta and rice, although this was partly offset by falls in spending in restaurants, cafes and pubs. In real terms, retail sales rose a moderate 0.7% which will add around 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in the quarter. Exports were very strong through to March, with resources and agriculture remaining resilient while tourism and foreign student arrivals fell sharply.
Business investment was likely weak in the quarter but this could be countered by solid spending by the government, including on infrastructure. The net effect of these two variables is likely to be broadly neutral.
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Based on available information, GDP growth is likely to be in a range of around 0.0% with risks evenly balanced. Up or down. The next few weeks will see the publication of further data which will feed into expectations for GDP when the data are released on 3 June 2020.
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